The Trump administration in the United States of America has taken pains to argue that the current air campaign is nothing like what Biden did in 2024, which National Security Adviser Mike Waltz categorized as "feckless attacks" that did little to defend freedom of navigation in the Red Sea or deter the Houthis from further belligerence, according to an opinion published by Newsweek website.
Operationally speaking, there's no doubt Houthi leaders are looking over their heads and taking more precautious than were previously.
Trump's strategy, however, is pretty much identical to Biden's working around the same assumption—with enough military pressure, the United States can either degrade the Houthis' military capacity to a minor irritant or coerce the group into stopping the attacks altogether.
He's right in one respect—the strike packages the United States is working with today encompass a broader array of targets, including Houthi leadership, in areas like city neighborhoods that were once off-limits.
Yet that assumption was wrong before and continues to be wrong today.
First, the Houthi attacks are already a minor irritant. This might be a shocking thing to hear given the statements from U.S. officials, but it's true. While shipping traffic through the Red Sea is down compared to pre-October 2023, international carriers have long since adapted to the situation by using a longer alternative route around Africa.
Worries that Houthi actions in the region will result in supply-chain bottlenecks, spiraling prices for consumers, or an increase in inflation haven't been proven true. Shippers are content with using the longer route even if it costs more, and many of them have simply protected their bottom-lines by charging more for the journey.
In fact, the only country truly hurting is Egypt, which has seen revenue from transit fees through the Suez Canal decline by around $7 billion last year.
Second, the Houthi rebels have demonstrated resiliency throughout their entire existence as an armed movement. To think the U.S. can follow in Saudi Arabia's footsteps and achieve a different result is a bit like buying a Power Ball ticket after 20 straight losses and thinking you'll win the jackpot. It almost defies reason.
Newsweek opinion concluded that Biden's policy on the Houthis was a failure. Trump's is at risk of meeting the same result.